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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-15T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39504/-1
CME Note: Bright asymmetrical CME seen to the west in all three coronagraphs. Its source is the M2.2 flare from AR 4105 (S15W70) peaking 2025-06-15T07:56Z and the associated eruption with faint ejecta seen going westward in GOES SUVI 304, post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195, and a relatively small area of dimming centered around (S11W65) seen in SDO AIA 193 and even clearer in EUVI A 195. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-20T13:36Z (-8.87h, +12.18h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/06/15 08:15Z
Plane of Sky 1: 14:30Z; 22Rsun; W Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 18:50Z; 22Rsun; E Direction
POS Difference: 4:20
POS Midpoint: 16:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:25

Numeric View/Impact Type: -2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~14.89
Travel Time: ~14.89 * 8:25 = 125:21

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-20T13:36Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 0.67 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 16:56Z



* STEREO A arrival estimated either ~2025-06-18T12:00Z (66%) or ~ 2025-06-19T20:00Z (33%)
Forecast Creation Time: 2025/06/15 17:44Z

Lead Time: 85.25 hour(s)
Difference: -30.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-06-15T17:45Z

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